Wendover Productions - 2021-06-01
Buy your custom domain or email for 10% off at http://Hover.com/wendover Listen to Extremities at http://ExtremitiesPodcast.com Buy a Wendover Productions t-shirt: https://standard.tv/collections/wendover-productions/products/wendover-productions-shirt Subscribe to Half as Interesting (The other channel from Wendover Productions): https://www.youtube.com/halfasinteresting Youtube: http://www.YouTube.com/WendoverProductions Instagram: http://Instagram.com/sam.from.wendover Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/WendoverPro Sponsorship Enquiries: wendover@standard.tv Other emails: sam@wendover.productions Reddit: http://Reddit.com/r/WendoverProductions Writing by Sam Denby Research by Sam Denby and Tristan Purdy Editing by Alexander Williard Animation by Josh Sherrington Sound by Graham Haerther Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster Select footage courtesy the AP Archive References [1] https://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/port-los-angeles/top-us-port-gateways-expand-share-asian-imports_20180831.html [2] https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-video-shows-massive-scope-of-california-box-ship-traffic-jam [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-imports-are-stuck-on-ships-floating-just-off-los-angeles-11617183002 [4] https://www.freightwaves.com/news/no-relief-global-container-shortage-likely-to-last-until-2022 [5] https://www.hillebrand.com/media/publication/where-are-all-the-containers-the-global-shortage-explained [6] https://www.vox.com/22410713/lumber-prices-shortage [7] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/a-major-chlorine-shortage-is-set-to-spoil-swimming-pool-fun-this-summer.html [8] https://www.wsj.com/articles/ketchup-packet-savers-squeeze-them-for-profits-11618412629 [9] https://www.independent.co.uk/extras/indybest/gadgets-tech/video-games-consoles/ps5-restock-release-date-pre-order-uk-b1835043.html [10] http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/jit.html Musicbed SyncID: MB01ILVGJ3TJXAX
The boba tea thing is really funny actually, because in Australia a "make at home" boba tea company called "bubble tea club" popped up during covid as the two owners were layed off DUE to covid and said "screw it, why not?" and now they ship internationally lol.
I can attest to the shortage of truck drivers. This has been a problem for over 5 years now. My friend's family runs a trucking business. The business is one of the most poorly-run businesses I have ever seen. They were on the brink of going out of business when the truck driver shortage happened. Now, even large companies such as Target and Gap are willing to put up with their tardiness and crap that would shut down an adequately-run business just to get their products shipped. This business once "forgot" a shipment for Forever 21 and missed the sale for Black Friday...
Also, Walmart has been ramping up hiring truck drivers for awhile now. They have these semi-annual hiring sessions in the large parking lot in my city where they test you right then and there. Starting salary is over $90k.
They still hold pretty strong on their years required, but they're one of the best trucking companies out there.
17:26 - 17:33 is my favorite takeaway from this video. SO MANY people are only interested in short term gains, NEVER playing the long game, thats a life lesson. always play the long game. invest in yourself and be consistent so that you can adapt for changes when they inevitably happen.
In that that case, it's really too bad that corporations are required to chase short-term gains, lest their investors not get richer, faster, constantly. If they feel like they could be making more money faster - short-term or not - they can simply demand things be changed.
The way these companies run is beyond messed-up.
Every corporation has quarterly profits statement.
If you don't show profit, you are fired.
@FutbolPro101 Yeah that's part of the problem
@Kyle Morgese the main reason shareholders aren’t willing to play the long game is for one reason, limited life. Unfortunately, that’s an unknown variable for all of us. The thinking is “I need to make as much money as I can so that I can enjoy it before I leave this planet”.
But short game obviously works. The real question is how can we use the long game to fuck over the greedy short gamers.
Seriously, after this COVID disruption to supply chain issues (ie. lack of semiconductor chips), every country should have their own manufacturing facility to avoid supply disruptions. Canada should have their own manufacturing facility. Sure it may be more expensive (due to mostly labour cost), but it should ensure constant supply and less price fluctuations. The world cannot just rely on China and India to manufacture critical materials like medical supplies/medications and semiconductors.
TAXATION still awaits anyone wanting to build a business here. MINIMUM WAGE still awaits anyone wanting to build a successful business here. To stand on an assembly line doing unskilled labor.
@Peter P are you kidding? Investing in real estate is never a bad idea, land is finite. Labor is easy when it's not asking for a pension for unskilled workers. And healthcare is a tax writeoff, who doesn't love those. I don't know where you get your info, but they're lying to you, hon.
While having a semiconductor factory in every country would be nice, there is a problem. A single new sufficiently advanced semiconductor factory costs a billion dollars to build if you're lucky.
As long as the people at the top making the decisions keep making more money nothing will change. They either need to have their incentive removed, or be given a new incentive to not do this, like life threats.
the problem with the case of semiconductors is that almost no one else can make them to the quality, quantity, or the R&D that that asia has (mostly Taiwan, they're super secretive to everyone in how they make and develop chips that everyone wants)
The main problem can be summed up in the statement you made at 17:40 - Constructing a resilient supply chain requires long-term thinking, but most companies have not nurtured an environment that allows for that.
@Greg Moore Why not either tell the truth or get caught up on your history! It was the US Congress, especially the Senate that sold out the USA to Asia for corporate profits. Don't blame this crap on Republicans only, everyone took a bite of this sandwich, Dem, Rep and Independents alike. It was "them" that let what happened to the manufacturing base what happened.
I was fortunate enough to read the writing on the wall back in the 70s where I had to make the decision to stay in my manufacturing town which at the time paid good wages and we had a variety of things manufactured here or opt for more college which required more money that I didn't have or join the military. I chose the latter and I'm glad I did. Politicians absolutely gutted the southeast of it's manufacturing capacity and much of the rest of the nation suffered as well and replaced it with absolute garbage made in Japan and China. For the most part Japan got its act together and played the role as a partner and after bit of political pressure stopped dumping good made by their clients on the American market. But then the Chinese at the same time were allowed to flood the market with vastly inferior products and that has NOT stopped and it's 2022! People changed too? They accepted "crap" in favor of low prices that was made in China. Most of the stuff you buy at WalMart is absolute crap and eventually ends up in the landfills. Durable items ain't so durable these days.
But back to the topic, world leaders seeking to set the world as they see fit (at the expense of anyone who gets in their way) are acting out the plan laid out by Zbigniew Brzezinski, (Carter's national security advisor) in is book The Grand Chessboard which has evolved into what we have today, the World Economic Forum, pushing the current agenda.
Don't be so stupid or deceived by smooth talking Democrats of which you're evidently one of into thinking this is the fault of the one political party of which you have some issues with! But "Domestic Manufacturing" you speak of? Seriously! You sound like Trump! But there is hope for you anyway. At least you see the benefit of domestic manufacturing. Maybe have a talk with Nancy Pelosi and have her invest in America instead of her and her husband's financial interests in China. Maybe we can put Americans to work in our own factories, pay them a decent wage and fix the supply chain issues of which there are volumes to be spoken of regarding that chain and it's problems not covered in the video.
During the depression the US government banned stock buybacks -- with very good reason. Ronald Reagan repealed that law. This is the single biggest factor for the "short term" thinking you're talking about. Learn about it.
@Meltedchair513 Uh That's What All American Companies Care About Because All American Economics Is Just A Short Term Growth Scheme I Will Refer You To A YouTube Channel Called "not just bikes"
@Gtivrsixer That's A Lie Because You See This Isn't A Global Issue Just Like Mass Shootings Are Not A Global Issue Do You Know Our Problems Exist No Where Else But In America Why Do You Think That Is
It's actually even more simple than that. Long term planning is terrific, but what you're actually after is redundancy, something long term planning tends to prescribe. Capitalist economics, supply side focused economics especially, such as "free market" economics like Reaganomics and the Austrian school, don't allow for redundancy.
Redundancy lowers the raw efficiency of your economy in trade for stability, and capitalists absolutely will not see the value in it. Especially as things like labor redundancy translate to trust busting and regulation on the ground.
Happy to see it at least got a mention that one of the keys to TPS was the elimination of rework/getting it right the first time. More companies should pay attention to this!
"Plastic resin can handle supply chain disruption", depends on the type of disruption. As a seller of plastic pipe in North America we've faced shortages all year. So much that we were told back in April/May that our manufacturers would not be able to take any new orders until the end of December.
As for the flawed implementation of just in time inventory I've seen it first hand. One of our suppliers instituted it over 10 years ago when a new CEO cane in and it nearly ruined them. Impressive savings in the first few years made shareholders happy but delivery times for their products increased by 2x to 4x what they were historically. These products were critical components for water & sewer infrastructure and as the lead times got worse many customers went to competitors to solve the problem. Sales plummeted and they've spent the last decade fixing these problems and trying to restore their reputation.
To this day, still the best deep dive into shortages of 2020 / 2021. It would be wonderful to have another updated deep dive into this. Its only getting worse.
Shortages? What shortages?
I go to Home Depot and Walmart and Costco, and I get everything I need. No empty shelves. Everything is fine.
Who exactly benefits by whipping up this bullsheet hysteria about shortages?
@MrPLC999 Not sure where you live, but plenty of stores (especially chain stores) in Pennsylvania still have a lot missing from shelves even now.
It's fascinating that the auto industry had these problems recognizing which parts of their supply chain should be flexible and which shouldn't. Car construction today is based around identifying 'crumple zones', parts of the car that can flex and compact to absorb energy in a crash, around a rigid frame. Their supply chain is no different: some parts can flex and some must remain rigid for it to work.
You hit it right on the head. Principles, principles, principles! Details differ, but principles prevail.
I knew from your title of the video that "Just in Time" manufacturing was going to be one of the causes you stated. I spent 26 years going between jobs in the air freight, ltl trucking, warehousing, and logistics industries and I saw "just in time" in action and just how customers got screwed up because they relied on it too much. I can't tell you the amount of times (it would definitely be over a hundred) I heard "we got to get it there because they're going to have to shut down a line if we don't". It's no wonder that during the covid crisis, that the problem would be exacerbated !
@Jordon Carlson There is a also a concept of Single Points of Failure. It has to work in conjunction with JIT. You have to be absolutely ready for risk and dealing with the worst case scenario.
@Unknown Unknown there's a lot of hyprocondriaks out there and loads off Government and civil servants that relish the lockdowns doesn't matter to them they still get paid
@D C There is a local co offering a signing bonus well into five figures to drive for them and it's not even long haul.
@Shankar Ravikumar The failures just becomes tax write offs for the Venture Fund Bros, so it's all good as far as mgmt is concerned.
"Just in time" really means "too little too late." I worked for a home goods company who essentially blamed the entire workforce when their "just enough" prediction was wrong, leading to massive backorders and ultimately negative cashflow. If they didn't attempt to game the system so hard and just manufacture at a slow and steady pace, they 1. wouldn't need a bunch of analysts who are essentially gambling and 2. they'd never be "out" for months, items would just come in as they're made.
The Right to Repair has got to be more important than ever. My neighbor had a nice new range put in her house. Within a few years, she ended up having to have a circuit board replaced 2x before giving up the third time and just buying a new stove. It probably would have helped if she could have replace the board herself. And now there are extreme home appliance shortages and waits.
My m-i-l had her stove go out last year. The repairman said he couldn't even fix it because they weren't even allowed to order the part anymore. She had to replace it.
Things are no longer built to last or to be repaired. They just want you to buy more.
@py Head Right to repair is not exclusive to farm equipment anymore although that is where it started and is most needed.
For what it's worth, it is difficult to repair a circuit board like that, but it is probably possible for a DIYer to make their own circuit board.
If it is a 15¢ capacitor like Ed Siler guesses, that's totally DIY-repairable. The tricky part is when it's one of the chips.
Never ever buy a brand new model of and appliance. You always buy a older model because the newer model hasn't been around long enough for flaws to be found.
just in time logistics: you throw one wrench in the system and your constantly behind the supply curve. you throw multiple wrenches and it creates a cascade effect that threaten an entire breakdown of the system. imagine if we had a MERS outbreak or a deadly airborne fungal outbreak. the entire system would collapse and it would be full blown apocalyptic.
I've learned so much about supply chains, the work force and human nature. Thank you, Wendover Productions
Such a good explanation! Humans almost always prefer a quick, easy, & over-simplified solution; as opposed to a nuanced & more complicated one that better fits reality.
"Less effective, less resilient, but can impress shareholders through short term savings." You just described pretty much every single company out there
This also explains why soooo many US firms sold out and moved manufacturing to communist China.
They were all warned! They did it anyway....Then when China steals your IP you seem incredulous....
I read an article about how Boring behaved after Philip Condit became CEO and it said he ran it under the mindset of RONA, return on net assets, which sounds about right when you think they were cool outsourcing work for the 737 max, good for short term profit but bit them in the butt (though not as much as it should have). Profit off the engineering expertise of Boeing while killing the engineering that made Boeing what it was
#JESUS FIRSTt Jesus Is Love And The Way And Truth And Life And The Only Way To Be Saved Through The Creator Of All Things To Jesus Be The Glory
You forgot to add "in America". ;-)
PEACE
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Titanic’s design wasn’t flawed - it was pretty well designed, so much so that people became overconfident claiming it was unsinkable.
This was so good. Thanks for all the effort and the clear explanation! Taught me a lot.
I work for a company that tried the just in time principal. They called it lean manufacturing. They were the largest employer in the northwestern Pennsylvania region. Almost 2,000 people just on the shop floor. Now, we are down to 80 people. They failed miserably implementing it. You said it perfectly. We mass produced parts that we needed to have in stock to stay afloat. Because they did away with inventory, we went under.
I have enjoyed your videos, but this one was exceptional, and you explained a complex problem, about a multifaceted system, in such a straight forward way. Thank you. :)
These videos are always well thought out and done. Really a great contribution.
This is the best video that I have seen on this channel. Excellent, in depth, and understandable explanations. Thanks!
A similar argument can be made about building maintenance and energy production. False profitability calculations being used to justify getting rid of maintenance staff or cleaning staff in favor of contractors with no vested interest in the company. Contractors often profit by ignoring a problem they recognize but aren't responsible for to increase costs.
Even taking basic production management classes, the flaws of how this happened are evident because they're old practices that never accounted for global shut downs or considered the reliance of importing over domestic production.
Studied Toyota's supply chain for a month this semester at university. Amazing how well they learned in 2011 to prevent (minimize) disruption down the road.
@bufonrox Cool TIL, thanks for letting me know cheers!
Current supply chain management major here. Feel free to PM me if you have any questions about the field or want to chat on the topic!
Great, you guys are studying it yet we still get caught with our pants down. Guess the only way to fix a problem is when it comes up and smacks you in the face.
When I first learned of Toyota's JIT when I was taking my MBA, what struck me was how they actually required their suppliers to have their production plants within a certain range, even having them within the same factory compound in some countries. And it was up to the supplier to decide how much inventory to stock for future order of parts and materials for the cars that Toyota made.
@UrbyPilot21 of course. To minimise supply disruption
After seeing this video i'm just surprised that supply chains this big can even work at all. It's also a little bit scary to rely on those ultra complex systems without knowing how robust they actually are.
"A ruthless pursuit of short term profit, at the expense of long term gain is the cause". A truer statement has never been uttered!
If you’ve tried to buy a white dress shirt you’ve probably seen that those are almost impossible to find.
It seems like everyone has a shortage of something.
What’s worse is not only has the supply cut drastically, but the demand has risen incredibly high as well.
Many times more weddings than normal in 2021, many people have changed their weight enough to need new shirts, and the normal needs as well.
It's not simply JIT, improperly implemented, that is causing supply- side shocks. Another critical, more important, driver, is a lack of resource diversification. System efficiency comes at a cost - the risk of shortages - when companies are reliant on 1 or 2 suppliers. Even Toyota is running out of chips for their cars now. Companies need a Plan B, C ,D, etc. for alternate sources of factors of production. This needs to be incorporated into their business continuity plans. Risk management by diversification is the only way production and provision can become resilient "fail-safe" activities.
@Maria Hotgirl Vlogs I agree with your pov. I've had 121.42319901 years experience in the aerospace industry. And I must admit JIT is simply ridiculous. I'm going back to my night job of being a vampire. With my clothes on, of course.
This is just so cool. I just started working at a Toyota Plant and everything mentioned on this video is thoroughly taught to every team member and reflected throughout the plant with logos and billboards. Keep pumping quality videos Wendover!
I worked at a Toyota plant too and did a lot of cross campus JIT deliveries. Their level of efficiency is just mind boggling. Hectic as hell for us assembly workers but darn impressive to witness from a business perspective.
Awesome feedback! The workable system (JIT) is known and learnable. Many people know it. US manufacturing leaders who don't understand this should get their MBA tuition reimbursed and then they should get fired for failing to learn what was so imminently learnable. They exposed their organizations to devastating risk through their own negligence.
@76MUTiger Nailed it. Beautifully said.
Products made in the USA do not typically get stuck on container ships! Hopefully Covid has taught a very valuable lesson to the United States that they need to still produce their core products here in the USA! Especially those with strategic importance.
Bruh be careful. Speak too much logic and you'll cause a problem.
It's important to state that, because chips are small, their stocking prices are quite low. So, as opposed to no stock, a company should look to stock inexpensive & small parts, that have a high probability to disrupt the supply-chain. But in what regards chips, it can be hard to stock them, since it's a very, very fast evolving industry, and in half a year, a stock that was worth milions, can be worth a couple thousands (this is due to exponentially decreasing memory prices). The constante fall in memory price might not be a real problem for car manufacturers, since that fenomena is due to high-tech companies wanting more memory in less space, but cars don't quite have that problem. Cars have enough space to accomodate whatever size the chips have. And, the chips aren't even the most expensive part of the car, yet the car can't go to the market without chips. In sum, the car manufacturing is being halted due to small chips (which it doesnt need cuz there isnt much space restriction) that aren't even that expensive on a car, but the car can't function without it. The whole supply chain is being halted due to stubborn managers not wanting to store little tiny chips for a couple of months due to "lean". Let me tell you, thats not lean.
I built JIT Supply Chain Systems at Toyota, and your analysis of the global problem and Toyota’s response is exactly correct. Toyota never runs lean where it increases risk of shortage. Thank you for explaining so well in this video.
I can clearly recall the time back in the late 80’s early 90’s when attending one of my several management conferences when the magic system of JIT was introduced. I listened in stunned amazement for even at that time I envisage a massive problem if even one small link in the chain failed. My response at the time was, we had better consider the other side of the coin ie. JTL
being Just To Late. Now here we are. Take the smallest gear wheel out of a clock and it surely will stop. Just sayin!!!
"It's a philosophy, not an equation" is such a great way to also get to the meat of the difference between Japanese and American businesses
@Itinerant_Chuck guess I should expect that in a comment section. You have a small peepee tho
@Itinerant_Chuck I know you are but what am I? That's you. That's what you sound like
@Editors Practice that's exactly what they're doing. They want obedient slaves, not competent employees.
America has to give up our precious resources to Japan..because . China not selling to them. it's that or they collapse and get invaded by ComChina.
@Mohnnad Mercedes The logical conclusion of big jackpots, short term gains. As long as they get their payout before the house of cards topples over, then it's all good.
The archival footage of the factories in Japan is genuinely cool
So cool because from Japan. Jdm life. Anime is cool 😎. Piss off mate
This is why government subsidies for certain things work. I thank Norman Borlaug that NO Western democracy has such idiotic business practices pushed for agriculture like in so many industries this video mentions. The myth of optimum efficiency is exactly that-- a myth. You can never 100% predict consumer demand. The current trend is towards artificial scarcity, because that raises prices and reduces costs.
Overproduction now is always done in agriculture because ANY shortage can lead to catastrophe. That is something the current generation has forgotten. You can't grow crops on a quarterly spreadsheet, and if you guess wrong -- millions could die. This is why in the US we overproduce grain and other staples. They can be dried and kept longer than other crops, but in addition to that we also overproduce other crops that are not as shelf stable. Excess production is either sold to feed lots for animals which can be kept on for another year or two if their meat is not needed, or converted into things like canned goods or other products to increase their longevity. If prices are in danger of going too low, the government pays farmers and ranchers to destroy or not harvest a portion of whatever they are producing. This incentivizes farmers to keep growing which keeps people from dying. Anyone who thinks local production can take off and we will all be eating organic food overnight is just plain crazy. No one in the past two years has mentioned how lucky we are that our agricultural Wall Street is run by people much smarter than the ones running the better known Wall Street. Oh, and Bubble tea is a luxury item-- not a vital one.
Thanks for this video. Been trying to explain this to people but this video does a much better job than I ever could
This might be your best video yet, it's definitely the one I feel the most personal passion in.
I was waiting for my favourite logistical specialist to tell me what’s going on in the logistical world.
@TheTechiemoses There were a lot of people in my area that just took up local jobs with Walmart, Lowe's or Home Depot. The latter two even kicked up a $2/per hour increase to keep up with sales plus multiple Covid relief bonuses were given out at this time. Lumber hit a dry period around mid-summer last year and currently they are nowhere near that level as most of them have more supplies than they can manage right now in this department. Drive by one of the latter and see if you notice that they are flushed with supply yet the demand never changed, only the cost has. It is not the store and it is not the distributor.
You will own nothing, you will rent everything and you will be happy.
https://youtu.be/O0W5mck7OJU
He didn't even mention the trains, which are basically 1/3rd of the Intermodal system which essentially IS the supply chain, that was part of the problem is the ships transfered the goods of their maritime containers locally to truck containers instead of putting them on trains in order to not pay for it like usual and get them back on the ship faster
@TheTechiemoses the root of all evil is within us humans ourselves
@Jacc Just-A-Concerned-Citizen You’re simply wrong, and that’s textbook hun.
@Tyler r
"How Toyota has effectively implemented this system fills books, but many are just reading the covers" is some of the most impactful one liners in this channel.
The truck driver shortage mentioned is NOT just a market phenomenon. The state of California passed the "anti Uber" law that inadvertently impacted independent truck drivers that move products from the ports in Los Angles and Long Beach to huge warehouses around Los Angles, which move from there to customers throughout America. Roughly 80,000 truck drivers were made ineligible to work in California almost overnight. A new emissions law passed at the same time required these independent drivers to spend upwards of $30,000 to comply with the new law. This caused a mass exodus of trucking resources to leave the state, holding the entire country hostage.
Many of the container ships can be re-routed through the new Panama Canal expansion, but some of the largest container ships still must unload in California.
Toyota's revised system is like having an emergency fund savings rather than living paycheck to paycheck. After fully understanding the system it's pretty genius.
I blame the bosses who refuse to listen to their engineering team but rather their executive board. This could have been prevented with hiring more people and giving them proper training from the existing worker force. So when one or more workers get sick or have to stay at home, the "new guy" can take his position for the time being and only try maintaining the production units, whether it is docked ships, unload containers, etc, etc. Bad bosses never give proper value to a strong, educated, autonomous work force, never, because they know that serious professionals need to be dealt in an equally serious and professional way.
One thing covid taught me, there is a lot I can live without. Want v need.
I still need burgers though
@Roger C Dont forget immigrants, and young people. Thank god for easy answers
Preach it Pamela!
I really hope more people realise this vs mindless consumption
Yes don't need trump or conservatives trust me we made it years without trump what the hell makes you think we can't survive without him again?
Brilliant, simply explained & clear video linking the key areas, thank you
This is still a useful video after a year... It'd be cool to have an update with new specific examples from the last year
As a westerner that's lived and worked in Japan for almost a decade... this misses and misunderstands some of the very serious problems with the Japanese way of doing business (Toyota included) that does contribute to the current problems here. For the most part, though, really interesting, and definitely relevant, even almost a year later.
Very nice channel, the videos these people share are amongst the best and most well put together. Thank you again wendover team! ❤️💕💓
I can’t believe he led with a seemingly obscure explanation of the boba supply chain back to Taiwan but then didn’t revisit the Taiwanese connection to semiconductor production dominance at the end of the video
Loui Anderson has a comic style that does this....
Car companies are at fault
Touche!
Keep telling yourself China being next door to Taiwan has nothing to do with this.
He can't even speak in a normal cadence and you expect him to stay on track? He's obsessed with Toyota apparently.
Wes H - 2021-06-02
"They ignored huge swaths of The Toyota Way, and created a system that's less effective and less resilient, but can impress shareholders through short-term savings."
Sums it up in one sentence. Really great video!
varana312 - 2021-06-05
@cattysplat Even in Western societies, children can go to school by themselves without getting kidnapped. And when they're brought by their parents, it's usually because of road safety, or weather, or public transport availability. Not for fear of crime.
Bill Anderson - 2021-06-29
@varana312 Agreed, this is highly dependent on where you live and overblown like crazy. The reality is that in MOST of America it is perfectly safe for kids to go to school on their own. I did, so did my kids - even in a large city for one of them.
A big part of why we don't realize that is this focus on a national level. Something like 2/3rds of murders occur in just 5-6 counties in the U.S.. To extrapolate that to the remaining 3100 or so is absurd, but that is what happens. I'm not going to call any of them out because people will try to derail it by trying to collectivist those counties. What matters for this topic is that you simply can not rationally extrapolate those 5 counties to the other 3100+. But lets get back to the dreaded kidnapping scenario posited above.
We see the same patterns for things like kidnap. Stranger kidnap, what is referenced here, is incredibly rare and a tiny fraction of kidnappings. By tiny fraction I mean one percent OF one percent of all missing/kidnapped kids were taken by complete strangers - yes one one-hundredth of one percent. Even non-stranger abductions are rare and a tiny portion of missing kid cases. Of all missing child reports, 90% are miscommunication, getting lost, being late, runaways, etc.. Only 9% are family/friend abduction and almost always as part of a custody dispute.
Annually in the U.S. only around 100 kids are abducted by a "stranger" - out of over seventy million under the age of 18. Technically for the data a stranger includes someone whom the child has known for less than six months, or more than six months but only see once a month or so, or someone the kid would recognize by face, but not recall the name. Out of the roughly 100 about 60-65% are complete strangers.
This helps make the next stat make more sense.
Of this type of abduction, 32% were taken from/at the kidnapper's home, 32% from the child's home, and the rest were somewhere else.
Compare that to the UK where they have almost 300 per year abducted by strangers - some 40% or so of UK child abductions are stranger abductions. I don't have location data in my memory or handy, nor do I have whether they count "acquaintance" similarly, thus the comparison stops there. But consider this: UK has less total people than the US has children but 2-3 times as many stranger abductions - even more if you go on total strangers.
Now Japan ... oi what a mess when it comes to child abduction. They do have a big problem there, just not the stranger abduction kind. Their parental rights system causes massive problems that kind of makes them a parental abductor's place to go. As is the case in the U.S. stranger abductions are a tiny fraction, and custody battles dominate (joint custody doesn't exist there, parental abduction isn't really considered a crime at first, etc.).
So despite cattysplat's nihilism, no there isn't someone lurking around every corner to snatch our kids - a least not here in America. It is correct that reality speaks for itself, but what the press tells, or sells, you is often not reality. Nor is what cattysplat selling reality.
San Bruno - 2021-07-25
PEACE
BONANZA
ABUNDANCE
FREE THINKING
Otto Von Bismarck - 2021-11-24
sounds exactly like boeing strategy, seeking only short term profit, and ending with the 737max failures and the 787 mishaps
Dwayne - 2022-10-09
So... simply Americanized 'Six-Sigma' bullshit. Saw it first hand. All about the short term cash into executive pockets and the long term employment of knee-pad wearing 'champions'. If the factory shuts down? Well.... too bad! The college chum network will discuss their next 'victory' at the 19th hole.
Can it work? Absolutely! But not when some arseholes up top decide they want a third Porche and another mistress by Christmas.
I have met one ( ONE! ) American Six-Sigma Champion worthy of that title who included a variable called "PEOPLE" into his calculations and succeeded brilliantly by comparison to his predecessors. He acknowledged that employees are not just an expense but also THE MEANS OF PRODUCTION (even on robotized assembly lines). He was smarter than any of the numbskulls he reported to... and they knew it. By walking Occams Razor he kept managerial excesses in check while knowing production employees by name AND walking alongside both parties to achieve long term success. Prior 'champions' (note the lower case...) were just knee-pad suck-ups who would (and did!) shut down entire areas, farm the work out, then re-open the areas later because the new vendors wouldn't take their shit.
Argh... I do NOT miss that environment in the least.