PolyMatter - 2022-11-21
Support PolyMatter & watch this video ad-free on Nebula: https://nebula.tv/videos/polymatter-americas-dangerous-obsession-with-invincibility Watch the new episode of my Nebula Original series: https://nebula.tv/videos/polymatter-why-china-has-the-only-sane-nuclear-policy Sources: https://pastebin.com/71SqzzE9 Twitter: https://twitter.com/polymatters Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/PolyMatter Email: polymatter@standard.tv How I Make These Videos: https://skl.sh/2OW1YQR Music by Graham Haerther (http://www.Haerther.net) Audio editing by Eric Schneider Motion graphics by Vincent de Langen Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster Writing & Direction by Evan This includes a paid sponsorship which had no part in the writing, editing, or production of the rest of the video. Music by Epidemic Sound: http://epidemicsound.com Video supplied by Getty Images Maps provided by MapTiler/OpenStreetMap Contributors and GEOlayers 3 Research and data collected with help from Statista https://youtube.com/@statistaofficial Select footage from the AP Archive
A man who builds ten foot walls, creates a market for 11 foot ladders.
I really like this, thanks.
Great quote.
I was thinkin...1 2 Freddie's comin 4 u from Nightmare on Elm Street
Luckily a smart person put landmines in front of the wall.
@Infinity tell that to the slaves you sold me
The Onion: Our National Nightmare of Peace and Prosperity is over.
Yeah I mean who would want peace anyhow?
What do mean by that cause the Us hasn’t been at war since Afghanistan
@@gothicgolem2947 prolly referring to our current proxy war with Russia via Ukraine
@@zaurenstoates7306 that’s not a proxy War that’s a full on Invasion of Ukraine by Russia
@@gothicgolem2947 This was an Onion headline from 2000, when George W. Bush was proclaimed president by the Supreme Court.
I think the biggest reason this obsession with invincibility and setting the rules of the game is the fact that the US's home territory has NEVER been properly attacked minus the war of 1812 and a few desolate Alaskan islands during WW2, most other nations have always lived with this possibility with being neighbors with people that have hated them for centuries in some form or another the US never had that problem and then one day 3,000+ people almost all of them civilian's died American civilians again have never been under threat of anything for almost all of it's history then suddenly they were vulnerable and so the the idea of achieving invincibility was born.
Sadly, its more cynical than that. 9/11 was just the excuse to get democrats to ratify the insane security state they'd been building since the late 80s when they tricked Carter. They were always going to find(or create) a reason.
USA will self-destruct.
I think you dropped your comma key. Here, this one is on me: ,
You hit it right on the nail, the “untouchability” of US is its best and worst boon.
It goes back further than that. The entire history of the US, from its founding to now, has played a role.
Describing Edward teller as a ‘scientist close to Ronald Regan’ does a disservice to actually how influential he was, he was the father of the hydrogen bomb and an integral part of the Manhattan project. Bro saw what happened to Nagasaki and Hiroshima and thought ‘we need to build bigger bombs’.
The man was a genius, we were lucky to have him.
@@jakehildebrand1824 genius used for evil isn't something that should be appreciated
@@Kaz7. no evil has come from his genius though.
In fact, there is significant evidence that his creations are the only reason the cold war didn't turn violent, and that they have actually prevented multiple other violent wars.
If you're referring to the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they ended a war, saved lives, and brought to life the modern era of Japan.
@@jakehildebrand1824 Please read up on the Japanese Empires motivations for surrendering, while the atomic bombs were major factors they were one of many.
Also, I'm unsure what you're referring to by stopping wars. While there have been no wars between nuclear armed nations, we've had plenty of other ones.
@@jakehildebrand1824 yeah, the nukes on Japan saved an estimated 800000 American casualties and millions more of Japanese deaths. This is the estimate for operation Downfall, invasion of Japan set for November 1945. Had the bombs not existed, far more people would have died.
I remember being in high school arguing with classmates pre-9/11 because, essentially, they were convinced that we were missile proof in the US. I feel like the country kind of lost its mind after those towers fell — like the biggest toughest kid at school who was always posturing got a bloody nose from the scrappy poor kid during recess. Unable to accept his own vulnerability, he doubles down on the perception of his own strength.
I know what you mean exactly. I was just getting into middle school when that crap happened and there was this crazed sense of disbelief that we weren't invulnerable. It got so bad we were willing to sell some of our most treasured freedoms and privacy just to soothe our wounded collective ego. I was always proud to be american and 100% convinced we were the good guys, but that all died for me with the war on terror.
Again it’s an emotional perception. While it may be accurate I think people fail to truly realize americas power.
@@ryanarthur1894 Being very powerful is not the same as being safe. The world's best boxer wins against the 5th best, but unless he wins by knockout he will be pummeled.
Once people become comfortable and feel safe, thats when they grow careless
@@yu-ur8nh This is the opposite problem actually. Not carelessness or complacency, but paranoia - leading to the very threats one is being paranoid about. It creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where your actions taken to supposedly guarantee your safety just end up looking aggressive and antagonizing even more people, leading to the emergence of ever more threats to yourself.
Very good video as always but from 3:28 to 3:44, Iran and Iraq’s central flag features are swapped
Yup
Was looking for this comment lol
Also, the Iraqi flag features should have had the three Ba'ath stars and "Allahu Akbar" in Saddam Hussein's handwriting, instead of the newer (2008-present) angular Kufic script.
Who cares. Those are third world country’s anyways.
yep
For those who haven’t seen it, Brain4Breakfast’s “America is on Easy Mode” is a good pairing for this video. Great stuff as always.
I'll check it out after this one. Thank you Brett Pinson
RIP
Damn, may him rest in peace
@@ladasodaexplains3355 what happen to Brain4Breakfast?
RIP
The US's geographic location is a huge bonus with an ocean on each side and two friendly nations to the North and South.
weak nations too at that
@Alexei Smirnoff yeah, remember the white house got torched in the war of 1812
@Alexei Smirnoff Brusing, but tbh we would take Canada in a heartbeat. Especially since the majority of the population closely borders our borders
We’re too close now to think of that
@Alexei Smirnoff Canada is weak when compared to the us and any country can give the us a brushing Vietnam,Afghanistan even then it’s the public opinion that ends the war not because the us can’t keep going
>South
On the meantime gringo, you just wait
'He who tries to defend everything ends up defending nothing', Sun Tsu.
11:36 fun fact America actually created these first, it's called project Pluto and was made during the 50s, it was cancelled because the white house thought it would be too provocative and would lead the soviets to create their own
It's hard to confirm or refute the premise of this video, that the pursuit of primacy makes us less safe than otherwise. Because while adversaries come up with creative workarounds to our defenses, there's no guarantee that they wouldn't do that if we didn't pursue primacy. While one could argue that the pursuit of primacy pushes us into arm races, one could just as easily argue that the non-pursuit of primacy leads to an adversary developing superiority. We just don't know what we don't know and adversaries have no incentive to tell us the truth of their intentions
Finally, someone gets that this video makes arguments in bad faith and uses straw men constantly. I like this channel a lot but this crusade against missile defense lately has been very poorly argued.
First off, I like your channel a lot so don’t take this as an attack, just feedback. A lot of these arguments (especially in the last two videos about missile defense) are presented with little evidence to the converse. You claim it’s America at fault for attempting (and yes I buy that missile defense is a pipe dream) to defend itself because it encourages more vigorous attackers to enhance capabilities. This is just made in very bad faith without analyzing why they might be doing this, what alternative strategies we could have taken, and what we could change. This reads like bully logic- “maybe if you stopped defending yourself I wouldn’t have had to punch you!”
Like, what reason do you give to say that had America not developed counter measures, we wouldn’t be in a much worse position? At least it’s “unclear” we’re defended. That’s still leagues better than definitely vulnerable.
Overall, really try to work out the other angles of your argument, otherwise you risk becoming a hollow presenter who loses credibility. Your china takes are good but you’ve missed pretty badly with this missile defense crusade you’ve been on, and I’m not even going to go into how testing isn’t apples to apples comparable in a way that you can just draw the conclusion that “defense is a coin flip”. That “math” reeks of buzz feed level “analysis by vibes”.
I love this channel but please do more research and lay your arguments out more clearly next time. Also, mixing up the Iran and Iraq flags is a very bad look and makes you way less credible.
Loook up
The new atlas
By Brian Berletic
@@kaiki8490 no thanks. I don't watch propaganda
First i agree with you pointing out the strawman premise.
No i do not recommend propanganda.
The google and utube recommendations are the one doing that.
The arms race never stopped. Those periods that gave illusions the arms race slowed down are purely because the enemies were incompetent or couldn't afford it.
The weapons from the cold war are insane, no doubt today there are tools that are so powerful it would make god look weak...
Yeah like the naval arms race between Britain and Germany pre ww1
It slowed down some times but most was still an upward chart of weapons
Also today what might look like a small arming of troops in a nation is most likely a massive buildup in say the 1860’s standard of weapon production and capability
whats the point of developing better weapons everytime while the nearest opponent is centuries behind? waste of money while the infrastructure is falling apart
@@vanmeierjl4049 The nearest opponents are decades behind at worst. And we can point back to decades old wars to demonstrate the harm those can do. The USA still uses the same standard machine gun that it did in WW2 and there is visual evidence that some Russian tanks fighting in Ukraine rolled off the factory floor in the 1960s.
Go read into a concept called the Dreadnought Effect which forces a degree of military equilibrium to arise every few decades. The USA is always working on new weapons because it anticipates that the Dreadnought Effect could happen at any moment to limit the previous effectiveness of its military. The way to fight this is to always be designing new Dreadnoughts in response to the ones you've already designed. So when a Russian T-72 tank rolls onto the battlefield it's confronted by a man portable rocket launcher that was designed to fight the Russian tank that should have replaced whatever replaced the T-72. Because the Russians have been working on that tank, and Russia's allies and adversaries have been working to defeat the tank that would defeat THAT, etc etc.
It's like Rome conquering their neighbors to create buffer zones, then needing to protect the buffer zones with new buffer zones, then needing to protect those new buffer zones with new buffer zones etc, etc,
Excited for a Polymatter video as always ❤
Same
@@heidirabenau511 Exactly.
13:41 It doesn’t matter if a missile defense system looks like a ballistic missile launch. It’s going to be followed by a retaliatory strike anyways. The die for nuclear war isn’t cast because the US attempted to shoot down a missile. The die was already cast because someone launched a strike at the US. The existence of a missile defense system wasn’t gonna change the outcome coming from that. MAD is still king and everyone knows that. A missile defense system isn’t there to prevent nuclear war or win it. It’s there to lessen the blow.
What scary is not war... Its that people forgets what war means
@۞ عبد الله ۞ INB4 chinese finally starts the war footing on taiwan...
@@abdAllah_as-Samad amerimutts are stupid please understand
@@abdAllah_as-Samad that's it.
3:26 small error, the "logo" of Iran and Iraq are inverted
great video btw
Was just going to say that
@@heidirabenau511 Don't know how he mixed it up
Who the hell cares anyhow !!!
@@DhrubajyotiRaja01 if you don't care, stfu
Party foul! Also, the Iraqi flag features should have had the three Ba'ath stars and "Allahu Akbar" in Saddam Hussein's handwriting, instead of the newer (2008-present) angular Kufic script.
While of course the missile shield is far from perfect, quoting the same statistic about the 44 percent success rate is misleading. Older tests were much more innacurate but newer ones have had far better success rate. It's why the tests are done, you expect problems and failures first then improvements over the years. So in this case the modern tests are a much better indicator of the systems capabilities, the older tests were done with worse technology. Not that I think that the missile defence system could stop Russia or China, but it could probably stop Iran or north korea.
Moving averages could help
yes! because a lot of missile interception technology has only recently become possible because of advances in computing technology over the last decade. there absolutely are ways of discriminating decoy nuclear weapons from real ones mainly by the radiation real nuclear weapons emit passively. the 44 percent statistic is also only for one type of missile. those tests are also just that tests. these tests are designed to challenge weapon systems so that you can identify and correct weaknesses. it is the same for the F35. in a test environment, the F 35 and F16 were put in visual range of each other to engage in dog fighting. in this situation, the F35 is at a disadvantage to the lighter more maneuverable F16. in the real world the F35 wouldn't be in visual range of a 4th gen aircraft and it wouldn't be detectable on aircraft-based radars. but the dogfighting test allows the Air Force to better prepare its F35 pilots if they were ever put in a worst-case scenario. the F22 was also beaten in a dogfight by a Eurofighter. in a real-world scenario the Eurofighter wouldn't have even known where the F22 was before it got knocked out of the sky. the reason the success rate is so high for short-range interception systems like Iron dome is that they are using real statistics from real deployments of the system. the way I see it if your weapon systems pass every test you give them. your tests are too easy.
Thanks for all that data you shared...lol
@@gravegamer8577 Thanks for all that real data you shared...lol
@R K yeah let me cite my sources in a youtube comment dipshit
The 2 separate wars doctrine dates back to WW2.
You know, when we actually had to fight two separate wars.
As a nebula subscriber i wish there were updates on YouTube, maybe a community post on new episodes since yt is still a more comfortable platform to use. Also, every episode is worth waiting for, thank you
How do you do the 15 dollars per month thing??)
@@kingslushie1018 it's 15 US dollars per year. Any of the affiliate links you see, such as the one Polymatter pinned, will give you that discount if you sign up through there.
@@domidomi917 it hasn’t been working right with me but I’ll try it again, thank you!
3:33 made a bit of a mix up there bud. Great video as always
Thank you for providing sources; It is always nice to be able to even look at the sources for such a video!
You did make it seem the military doctrine of fighting two simultaneous wars against near peer adversaries a bush policy but it has been a policy since ww2 when we did just that
An interesting view point and a great presentation. What else do you need for an excellent video!
This video is amazing! I am so excited for the rest of the series!
His video is very wrong because #1 China already has an active missile shield and Russia has the same it is just mobile and ready to deploy and currently as we speak it is right now being deployed around Moscow, also Israel has the Arrow missile shield that is 100% active and reported to be able to deal with Hypersonic weapons and also India and Pakistan are doing the same so why is he against the USA having the same? Makes no sense. The USA is behind Russia and China both in advancements in nuclear weapons, hypersonic weapons and a missile shield. Playing innocent does not win you any points in this world and if people like this channel think that Putin won't dare press the button then you need to think again, he said it himself, if Russia fails then the rest of the world fails. That is as clear as it gets, be ready because Russia can fail even without any US involvement but it will take everyone down with them.
Thanks for the awesome content and great video!
I feel like Americans have what I like to call "climber's fright". If you reach the top of the mountain then by barely looking down you'll get scared without doing anything. While those who are risking their lives are not as terrified.
While I do understand the logic behind it. As someone from an EX soviet country I can comfortably say that I wholeheartedly disagree with the conclusion.
The stains of a dictatorship are not easily to wash off as the decades go by. Between being nuked and being an ex soviet puppet state I think Japan got a much better deal.
Condolences to you for Soviet past..
BUT , japan is not a country, it is a mindset....
One cannot simply recreate japan economy or culture ...
@@udhayakumarMN West Germany also prospered. As did all Marshall plan recipients. It was definitively better to be in the west than in Soviet states.
@@udhayakumarMN modern japan is a shell of itself, its mindset slowly corroding by is occupation
So you became poorer without Soviet aid, and other European states are poorer than Japan.
@@andrewsheek dude marshall plan didn't help at all, it represent not even 5% of the french budget from 1947 to 1951,
Do you think 150 billions in TODAY money separeted between more than 10 country is a big amount , with 20 billions you don't even rebuild half the country
13:00 Are we assuming that China or Russia fired the initial missile in this instance? If yes, I don't see why they would fire just the one? If no, how would they not detect the initial missile, but be able to detect our intercept missile?
they still may assault instead of 100% defense interception launch, some counter launch are conducted as well.
I just wanted to mention that the closest we ever came to nuclear war was when a radar suffered an error and showed a missile nuke being launched by the USA that was ignored due to a fact that it only showed one missile heading towards Russia and the person who held the power to return fire believe that if nukes were being fired it would be dozens at the very least.
He assumes NK launches initial missile, and russia identifies interceptor as attacking missile
China clearly and frequently state they will not use nuckear weapons first.
American had never state that
Check out this channnel by an ex-marine
The new atlas
Brian berletic
brilliant video as always!
Well-explained video here, Polymatter team!
"I'M FUCKING INVINCIBLE!" -Sundowner
I've said no such thing!
this is how everyone treats safety now tho... any tragedy or accident, must have the entire world thrown at it, to make sure it never happens again. we cannot accept that bad things occasionally do happen, and we want that line to go down, it will never be zero... we've all gone insane with this, nobody is able to accept that things wil never be perfect.
Yes I agree, this is not a uniquely American thing. And I don’t think that a good portion of the world would be so comfortable in their meager defense budgets if the US lacked a gargantuan one.
@@phormioofathens4774 one of the greatest points made in this comment section. Social opinion may be whatever, but Allies of the US are not so found when they try to pull out or reduce troop count in host nations.
This is a brilliant video. Thanks PolyMatter!!!
I want to learn more about this subject, particularly the defense policy and geopolitics of this
Same. There are a few videos similar to this topic. I highly recommend it to find it and watch these videos
This might be a place to start (https://www.youtube.com/@PerunAU)
This video at 38:00 touch on this subject
(https://youtu.be/0n3fjoacL20)
yt keep deleting my comment
Some Brit: You know what would be really great? What if we could project our air force across long distances? Then we would have the tools to engage in combined-arms warfare almost anywhere in the world. We would never be without at least parity in the air. We could put our planes on boats and float them around wherever we wanted. I'll call it...an aircraft carrier!
USA: I'll take a dozen.
USA: Actually, make it a bakers dozen.
Hey, watching this as a European it could be very interesting, considering our somewhat mixed relationship to the US’s claim of being basically in charge of the free world.
The problem is Europe countries aren't very united and are all heavily dependent on US for their defense.
It's not a claim, it is the truth. American hegemony is, for the moment at least, a fact.
Sure, let's put China in charge of the free world...
@@KevinJohnson-cv2no I meant "claim" in the "to a title" sense, not the "claiming to make a factual statement" sense. You're not wrong in your general statement though, unfortunately.
Because they are in charge
Interesting take, imo you guys should double the defence budged
A genuinely excellent video essay with a strong and compelling argument, thank you.
What was his argument?
@@DragonHuman00 That the modern method of achieving invincibility for the U.S' citizens has only lead to more and more holes within the defense system as (rival) countries are more incentivized to ramp up their military spending in response to America's threats of global dominance, along with how all of this essentially puts America at a disadvantage on the international stage. Positive feedback loop.
@@TheEntireCircus05 What's a realistic alternative?
@@DragonHuman00 There really isn't one except for either increasing defense spending to not have the fail rate at optimal levels be 44-fucking-percent, or maybe make a peace deal with other countries to agree to cool it with the militarization (unlikely but relations with countries like NK has bettered recently). I honestly don't think that Russia or NK is incentivized as much to wage war on America since that means waging war on NATO as well, so I don't think that advocating for a more peaceful world is entirely out of the picture. Iran/China could be an issue, though.
Or, comparatively, we just continue with the spending until a war breaks out and America explodes.
@@TheEntireCircus05 Deals with China and Russia aren't worth more than the paper they're written on. The only realistic option is to continue improving defensive systems.
Not really the point but hypersonic missiles are not ballistic missiles, in fact loads of ballistic missiles travel fast enough to be considered hypersonic. Hypersonic missiles are cruise missile (which fly more like airplanes) that achieve hypersonic speeds
The US should now consider making an Ion Cannon.
Perhaps if you had one Napoleon, you wouldn't have lost
Who says we don't already have one ;)
The US should now consider dissolving itself.
Ifl Polymatter vids so much, never change mate - your videos are a beacon of light on this platform
Very interesting new perspective for me on how we got to the new arms race of the past decades. Thanks for all the great stuff!
I'm pretty sure the US has extremely good air defense in places that are important like the DC area or large population city's like NYC. The US military goal isn't there to protect the civilians, its goal is to carry out whatever the government tells them to do good or bad. An attack on Washington would probably be mostly blocked but an attack on somewhere like Pensacola Fl would destroy the city. The retaliation from the US from an attack on its territory would mean that other country that attacked wouldn't exist anymore. Unless it was China then both the US and China would become a nuclear wasteland.
Nah man ballistic missiles have to be intercepted in the boost phase while they're over their launch sites so if that button is pushed everywhere is equally stuffed
Did you even watch the video? Even in rigged tests where they are made to succeed, the defense system fails 50% of the time. So against a real threat or hypersonic missiles? Yeah no, Washington isn't any safer than any other place in the US.
There are 3 military bases in close proximity to Pensacola FL, it's probably not as exposed as you think. But I do get your point.
8:37 Perhaps it's too optimistic but an anti-nuclear defense system would be a project with the highest level of secrecy that enemy nations and the public would only find out about on a dreadful day MAD kicks off.
A nuclear defense system would defeat its own purpose if its existence was common knowledge.
LOL
But on the flip side, that policy also pushes enemy nations to constantly up their offensive capabilities on the assumption that you've possibly got a defense against what they have. They can't afford to find out on D-Day. So they assume the worst and therefore make things worse for you. A more open policy would allow nations to more calibrate their responses, instead of going all out.
No. The only thing better than being able to intercept enemy missiles is deterring them from launching those missiles in the first place. Why risk being forced to actually use your defense system when instead you could let the world know it exists so they don't even try to attack in the first place?
This is exactly why countries don't hide the fact that they have nuclear weapons. The whole point is to never have to use them. It defeats the purpose if they are kept secret. The same applies to defenses against nuclear weapons.
I see this a lot. So many people hope that there is some top secret defense that could shoot down hundreds of incoming Russian missiles. That's nothing but naive wishful thinking.
Oh yes. Related: If China and Russia have Hypersonic ICBM, then the USA absolutely will have them, and they'll be BETTER. This all needs to stop. I'm sick of people playing Red Alert 2 in real life using the entire world as an 11D chessboard. I prefer NATO to the reprehensible Russian authorities and Jinping, but I don't think many people realise...
It is just utterly wrong that humanity has arrived Nuclear NATO vs Nuclear Russia / China. There is no need whatsoever for things to be like this. As of this time, Humanity really does stand on the brink between greatness and ruining the planet for nearly all life on earth.
If so, I wish the Rat People better luck when they emerge in a million years.
People really think that the army is not hiding defenses for the sake of the element of surprise
you guys are incredible... good work! 👍
The issue is, while we fully have defenses against short range and even medium range weapons, intercontinental weapons are different because they are orbital weapons, they fly up into orbit, out of reach of anything, and slam down on a target going 15,000 Mph (24,000 KpH). It's very very very hard to intercept something going that fast mid flight. Current strategy is to try and intercept them as they launch.
The secretive X-37B just got back from a 2 and a half year mission in orbit for the US military, i would not be surprised if they are trying to see if orbital drones or platforms could be used to make a missile defense system.
The US has THAAD and Aegis to protect from ICBM’s. THAAD has an altitude range of 150 km and Aegis SM-3 Block 2A missile has an altitude range of 1100 Km
Both have hit to kill capability and have demonstrated over 95% hit probability. Patriot system can also be used against ICBM’s but it only has a altitude range of 40 km since it’s meant more for intercepting short range ballistic missiles rather than ICBM’s. But Patriot also has very accurate hit to kill capability and could intercept an ICBM
3:28 You got the logos for Iran and Iraq the wrong way around
Party foul! Also, the Iraqi flag features should have had the three Ba'ath stars and "Allahu Akbar" in Saddam Hussein's handwriting, instead of the newer (2008-present) angular Kufic script.
Just imagine if half of that enormous military budget would have been spent on buying goodwill.
Countries just don’t stay bought.
@PolyMatter - 2022-11-21
Hi there — I've now made 6 full-length videos exclusive to Nebula. You can watch all of them (plus future exclusives and other Nebula Originals) for just $15/year https://curiositystream.com/polymatter After signing up to CuriosityStream with this link you'll get an email with access to Nebula. -Evan
@pyeitme508 - 2022-11-21
Meh 😑
@jeromenelson4093 - 2022-11-21
I subscribed for Nebula :-D to watch your other videos and have no more of your content to watch on it. Thanks for the informative content though it's great to watch
@Verbierlover552 - 2022-11-21
You switched the icon of Iran with Iraq at 3:33!
@giraffestreet - 2022-11-21
10:58 Launching hypersonic missile from Russia or China through South Pole?
@captainpiggz6391 - 2022-11-21
I had to cancel my subscription to nebula because of the pure amount of politically bias material on there